The Ukrainian president has declared that his country is ready to hold elections in the next 60-90 days, showing flexibility in the face of Trump‘s pressure. However, he emphasized that the security of the voting operations must be guaranteed with the help of the United States and European allies. This statement came in response to Trump‘s claims, who accused the Ukrainian administration of using the war as a pretext for not holding elections. Trump also criticized Europe, describing it as a group of “declining countries” led by “weak people”.
The climate of uncertainty is becoming increasingly heavy, with America seeming to be crushed by the Kremlin‘s positions. Zelensky reiterated that the question of elections depends first and foremost on the Ukrainian people and defined the insinuations that he or his government are clinging to power to prolong the war as unreasonable. Zelensky‘s mandate, elected in 2019 with 73% of the vote, was due to expire in May 2024, but the elections were suspended with the declaration of martial law after the Russian invasion.
A survey conducted in March by the International Institute of Sociology in Kiev revealed that about 78% of citizens oppose holding elections after a ceasefire with security guarantees, preferring to return to the polls only after a complete solution to the conflict. The quota dropped to 63% in a September survey, signaling a small but significant shift in public opinion. From a practical point of view, there are significant obstacles to organizing elections during wartime, with millions of Ukrainians refugees abroad due to the conflict.
The exchange between Trump and Zelensky highlights the growing uncertainty of the United States regarding the conflict, which the US president had hoped to close or at least freeze in a shorter time. Trump declared that Ukraine is no longer a democracy, bringing his discourse closer to the Russian narrative. Moscow has repeatedly emphasized that it will not sign a peace agreement with a government it considers illegitimate, pushing for presidential elections that could trigger a political and social crisis in Ukraine. A Ukrainian parliamentarian stated that the hypothesis of holding elections is exactly what Putin would want, as a campaign would be divisive.
Beyond the electoral issue, Zelensky is under pressure for other reasons. European leaders are concerned about being excluded from the ongoing negotiations, centered on a draft plan between the United States and Russia that requires significant concessions from Kiev. Zelensky described the talks with the Italian premier as “excellent and very in-depth on all aspects of the diplomatic situation”. The negotiations with Washington focus on delicate issues, including future security guarantees and the status of eastern Ukraine regions claimed by Moscow.
With the United States seeming to be crushed by a logic of confrontation between powers, Ukraine hopes for a surge of pride from European partners, called upon to make their way between Moscow and Washington to influence the country’s future, now at war for almost four years. The enormous logistical and legal difficulties, as well as the evident security threats, make any vote a high-risk gamble.
El intercambio entre Trump y Zelensky destaca la creciente inseguridad de los Estados Unidos respecto al conflicto, al que el presidente estadounidense esperaba cerrar o al menos congelar en un plazo más corto. Trump declaró que Ucrania ya no es una democracia, acercando su discurso a la narrativa rusa. Moscú ha repetido que no quiere firmar un acuerdo de paz con un gobierno que considera ilegítimo, empujando por elecciones presidenciales que podrían desatar una crisis política y social en Ucrania. Un parlamentario ucraniano declaró que la idea de ir a las urnas es exactamente lo que Putin quiere, ya que una campaña sería divisiva.
Más allá de la cuestión electoral, Zelensky está bajo presión por otras razones. Los líderes europeos están preocupados por ser excluidos de las negociaciones en curso, basadas en un proyecto de plan entre los Estados Unidos y Rusia que requiere importantes concesiones de Kiev. Zelensky describió sus conversaciones con el primer ministro italiano como “excelentes y muy profundas en todos los aspectos de la situación diplomática”. Las negociaciones con Washington se centran en temas delicados, incluyendo garantías de seguridad futuras y el estatus de las regiones orientales de Ucrania, reclamadas por Moscú.
La situación actual
Con los Estados Unidos atascados en una lógica de confrontación entre poderes, Ucrania espera un impulso de orgullo de los socios europeos, llamados a hacer su camino entre Moscú y Washington para influir en el futuro del país, ahora en guerra durante casi cuatro años. Las enormes dificultades logísticas y legales, así como las evidentes amenazas de seguridad, convierten cualquier voto en un juego de alto riesgo.
