Diez años después de los ataques del 13 de noviembre de 2015, el Bataclan sigue siendo un símbolo de herida abierta en Europa, donde los ataques afectaron estilo de vida y seguridad. Los terroristas, bajo órdenes del Estado Islámico, atacaron varios lugares en París, dejando 130 muertos y 400 heridos. La solidaridad sigue siendo clave en la lucha contra el terrorismo.
Europe is aging rapidly, affecting economic growth and public finances. Despite measures such as subsidized childcare and greater gender equality in domestic work, there is no clear solution to increase the birth rate. Immigration remains the main way to counteract the negative effects of population aging. A well-designed immigration system, prioritizing work-based visas and limiting asylum and family reunification visas, can maximize fiscal benefits for Europe. The need for a positive contribution of immigration to government finances is crucial in the face of aging.
Europe needs a missile deterrent in the face of the growing threat from Russia, which demonstrated its military capabilities in 2025 with attacks on Ukraine. European air defense is insufficient to intercept large waves of missiles and drones, and Russia’s mass production of precision weaponry challenges European security. The need to invest in integrated air and missile defense systems, increase stocks of advanced missiles, and close technological gaps with the United States is highlighted to strengthen deterrence against potential Russian aggression.
Europe will face geopolitical and economic changes in the short and medium term due to the deterioration of the post-war international order, economic pressures from China and the United States, and Russian aggression. Scenarios are proposed for 2030-2035 and policies to address risks such as the collapse of the US bond market, Russian military aggression, fiscal crisis due to populism, and trade tensions between the US and China. Three possible scenarios are presented for 2035: less international cooperation, three blocks led by China and the US, and a new multilateral order. Europe must prepare for adverse scenarios, increase its strategic autonomy, and promote the international order.
The dominant countries in AI, such as the United States and China, generate geopolitical and economic tensions. The European Union seeks to develop its own sovereign AI to reduce its technological dependence and foster innovation based on democratic values.
