From COP29 to COP30: Financing, Markets, and Insufficient Commitments
The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, known as the “Finance COP,” concluded with the Baku Climate Unity Pact. The summit took place in a complex geopolitical context, marked by the re-election of Donald Trump in the United States and the rollback of the climate agenda in several countries. Despite the initial cautious pessimism, COP29 achieved several significant advances that will help progress towards the implementation of progressively ambitious climate commitments before COP30.
One of the most important milestones was the definition of a new international climate finance goal, called the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). This goal triples the current commitment of developed countries, raising it to 300 billion dollars annually by 2035, compared to the current 100 billion. Additionally, an expanded financing target of 1.3 trillion dollars annually by 2035 was set, responding to the demands of developing countries. The Baku-Belém Roadmap was agreed upon to achieve this target.
The NCQG expands the base of contributors and foresees dedicating a substantial part of public financing to adaptation. Another substantial advance was the agreement for the full operationalization of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which facilitates cooperation between countries and entities through market mechanisms. This article also includes initiatives unrelated to carbon markets. The implementation of robust standards in Article 6 could significantly increase the efficiency of climate actions and ensure the environmental integrity of market mechanisms.
In the area of adaptation, guidelines were agreed upon for the establishment of 100 globally applicable adaptation indicators out of the 9,000 proposed. However, the climate negotiations in Baku did not advance in key areas for the European Union, such as mitigation and just transition.
In 2025, the Parties to the Paris Agreement will present a new round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). China, the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, is expected to present its NDC considering the objectives of its 15th Five-Year Plan, which will be presented in 2026. Although China has met its renewable energy target ahead of schedule, it has shown delays in meeting its energy intensity and carbon targets. Despite this, China has expressed its commitment to the energy transition and its intention to increase its weight in global climate governance.
The United States presented its NDC in December 2024 under the Biden Administration, but this will expire after the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in January 2026. The European Union will delay the submission of its NDC until the second half of 2025, pending the establishment of the 2040 emission reduction target.
COP30 will again focus on financing, although other substantive elements pending negotiation will also be addressed. The report on the Baku to Belém Roadmap to achieve 1.3 trillion dollars in climate financing by 2035 will be published. Advances are also expected in possible levies on the air and maritime transport sectors, the implementation of the recommendations of the global stocktake, and the protection of biodiversity and forests.
Adaptation will continue to gain prominence with the selection of 100 indicators to assess the achievement of the global adaptation goal and the call for countries to submit their national adaptation plans before COP30. Advances in the work program on just transition and the interconnection of various instruments to address losses and damages are expected at the intersessional meetings in Bonn in June and at COP30.
The Baku Declaration on Water for Climate Action represents an opportunity to strengthen the role of water in international climate policies. With the conclusion of the negotiations on Article 6, it is expected to resume reflection on the future of climate negotiations to simplify them and promote climate action. This will involve strengthening ties with actors who are not “Parties” to the Paris Agreement and establishing clear priorities regarding the actions to be taken.
For COP30, the following recommendations are proposed: actively strengthen existing alliances and promote shared leadership among the Parties that remain in the Paris Agreement after the announcement of the US withdrawal. Increase regionalized information on financing needs, increase the amount of climate financing available and improve access to it. Establish a plan to close the ambition gap that goes beyond the call for annual updating of NDCs. Reach an agreement on the 100 indicators to advance the global adaptation goal and provide developing countries with the means to monitor these. Develop a platform to exchange experiences related to the governance of just transition and advance towards a Global Framework for Just Transition.
