Researchers anticipated a gradual slowdown in public school enrollment before COVID-19. Between 2012 and 2019, public school enrollment increased by only 2%, stabilizing around 50 million students. Concurrently, the U.S. total fertility rate declined to 1.71 births per woman, well below the replacement level, indicating a future reduction in the school-age population. The pandemic exacerbated this trend, causing significant enrollment losses in states like Massachusetts, Virginia, Michigan, and California. Nationally, urban and high-poverty districts experienced similar declines, with a surge in homeschooling and private-schooling. Despite these shifts, millions of children remained unaccounted for in any formal enrollment records. The financial implications are severe, as most state and federal aid is allocated on a per-pupil basis. District leaders are considering adjustments to school capacity, redistricting, or even permanent closures to balance budgets. These measures are often politically sensitive but necessary due to fiscal pressures. Recent data confirms that steeper enrollment losses increase the likelihood of permanent school closures.
Enrollment Declines by Student Group
Enrollment declines have not been uniform across student groups. Kindergarten enrollment decreased most sharply for black and low-income children, while declines in later grades were more concentrated among white and higher-income students already enrolled in public schools. These patterns heighten concerns about potential re-segregation and resource inequality. Policymakers and district officials are exploring various strategies to mitigate further enrollment losses or reduce their impact. Some districts, like New York City, have committed to maintaining school budgets despite declining enrollment. Others are experimenting with new curricula or enhanced parent outreach to attract students back to public schools.
Methodology and Data Sources
This report provides detailed estimates of recent shifts in public school enrollment. By linking National Center for Education Statistics data with federal population estimates, the report illustrates how enrollment shifts vary across districts with different racial and economic profiles. Additionally, it projects how continued enrollment declines could drive future school closures and alter the number of seats traditional districts will need through 2050.
Our analysis utilizes four complementary federal datasets. The Common Core of Data (CCD) from NCES provides annual, school-level counts of public-school students, along with information on each school’s location and type. The Census Bureau’s Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) offer district-level counts of school-age children and those in poverty. The Census Bureau’s Population Division provides forecasts of the school-age population through 2100. The Private School Universe Survey (PSS) adds national and state counts of private-school students for odd-numbered years from 2011 to 2021. Private school enrollment for even-numbered years, including 2022-23 and 2023-24, is estimated using a linear trend fitted to private school enrollment through 2021-22.
Calculating Enrollment Shifts
Merging CCD and PSS enrollment figures with SAIPE/Census population baselines allows us to track shifts in public- and private-sector enrollment relative to the underlying school-age population. By comparing reported public and private school enrollments with Census estimates of the total school-age population, we can gauge how many school-age children are not attending public or private schools. To investigate the share of students outside traditional public schools by race/ethnicity, we identify districts where one racial or ethnic group accounts for at least 90% of 2016-17 enrollment. Within each such district, we calculate the share of students who enroll in private, charter, alternative, or virtual public schools and treat the residual as the share who are absent from all federal enrollment files. This method overcomes a data limitation: The Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates do not report district-level school-age population by race.
Enrollment by Socioeconomic Status
To analyze enrollment by socioeconomic status, we compute each district’s average student-poverty rate for 2016-19, smoothing out year-to-year fluctuations. We then divide the resulting distribution into thirds: Districts with poverty rates below 11.47% are classified as low-poverty, those with rates between 11.47 and 19.22% as medium-poverty, and those above 19.22% as high-poverty.
La mezcla de opciones de educación ha cambiado desde 2016. Antes de la pandemia, la participación de estudiantes en escuelas públicas tradicionales (TPS) se mantuvo estable, fluctuando cerca del 85% desde 2016-17 hasta 2019-20. La pandemia marca un punto de inflexión claro: La participación de TPS cayó mientras las familias se dirigieron hacia opciones alternativas. Las escuelas charter se expandieron cada año, aumentando desde el 5.0% de la matrícula en 2016-17 hasta el 6.0% en 2023-24. Las escuelas públicas alternativas (como escuelas de educación especial) subieron desde el 1.3% hasta el 1.5% en el mismo período. Las escuelas virtuales eran una rareza pre-COVID (0.7% en 2019-20) pero casi se duplicaron a 1.2% en 2020-21 y han permanecido elevadas desde entonces. La matrícula en escuelas privadas se mantuvo estable alrededor del 8.8% entre 2016-17 y 2023-24. El cambio más notable es fuera del sector de educación pública. Combinando la matrícula en escuelas privadas con los estudiantes que no se pueden asignar a ninguna escuela en el CCD, la participación de niños fuera de las escuelas públicas promedió el 9.7% antes de COVID-19, saltó al 11.5% en 2020-21, alcanzó el 13.1% en 2021-22 y ha permanecido por encima de los niveles pre-pandémicos (11.8% en 2022-23 y 12.6% en 2023-24). Dado que la matrícula en escuelas privadas se ha mantenido relativamente estable, el crecimiento post-pandémico en el “grupo fuera de las escuelas públicas” puede provenir principalmente de estudiantes faltantes en los conjuntos de datos federales en lugar de un aumento en las matrículas de escuelas privadas. Estas estimaciones basadas en tendencias probablemente sean conservadoras. Desde 2021-22, algunos estados han ampliado programas de cupones que deberían empujar la matrícula en escuelas privadas aún más arriba. Incluso con esa advertencia, la participación combinada de estudiantes en escuelas privadas o no contabilizados es del 12.6% en 2023-24, una figura derivada directamente de los conteos de población SAIPE y los archivos de escuelas públicas CCD.
Mapa interactivo
El mapa interactivo muestra, para cada estado, la participación y el número de niños de edad escolar que no aparecen en registros de matrícula pública o privada. En 2021-22, estas participaciones desconocidas o “faltantes” oscilan desde cero en Florida, Delaware y el Distrito de Columbia hasta cerca del 12% en Oregón. La mayoría de los estados se agrupan bien por debajo de ese extremo: El estado mediano, Wisconsin, tenía el 5.5% de estudiantes no contabilizados. La mayoría del sureste y la costa media, estados como Georgia, Carolina del Norte, Alabama, Maryland y Pensilvania, se encuentran en el rango de 2.5-7.5%. Las regiones industriales del medio oeste y las llanuras centrales (por ejemplo, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska) también se encuentran en este rango. Las brechas más grandes (superiores al 7.5%) se concentran en el oeste lejano y el norte de Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Dakota del Norte, Alaska y dos estados de los Apalaches, Kentucky y Virginia Occidental.
Distritos predominantemente de un solo grupo racial o étnico
La participación de estudiantes fuera de las escuelas públicas tradicionales ha cambiado en los distritos compuestos principalmente por un solo grupo racial o étnico. En los distritos que sirven principalmente a estudiantes negros, la participación no de TPS ha sido tanto la más alta como la más rápida en crecer. La participación aumentó desde el 25.4% en 2015-16 hasta el 34.1% en 2023-24, y la pandemia no alteró esa trayectoria. Los distritos predominantemente hispanos comenzaron con la participación de TPS más baja, alcanzando el 12.0% en 2018-19 antes de la pandemia. Después de 2020, la proporción subió notablemente, alcanzando el 17.4% en 2021-22 y permaneciendo en el 17.6% en 2023-24. Los distritos predominantemente blancos fueron sorprendentemente estables antes de la pandemia, fluctuando entre el 12.8 y el 13.7%, pero su participación no de TPS se movió hacia arriba después de 2020 y alcanzó el 17.5% en 2023-24. En general, estas tendencias indican que los estudiantes en distritos que sirven principalmente a poblaciones negras continúan abandonando las escuelas públicas tradicionales a un ritmo más rápido que sus pares en distritos blancos o hispanos. Las aumentos post-pandémicos en los distritos blancos y hispanos son notables pero más modestos.
Nivel de pobreza de los distritos escolares
La participación de estudiantes aprendiendo fuera de las escuelas públicas tradicionales varía con el nivel de pobreza de su distrito escolar. En cada año de la serie, los distritos de alta pobreza registran la participación más alta de estudiantes fuera del sector de escuelas públicas tradicionales, seguidos por los distritos de media y luego los de baja pobreza. Antes de la pandemia, la participación en los distritos de alta pobreza aumentó gradualmente desde el 19.3% en 2016-17 hasta el 21.0% en 2019-20; después de 2020, se aceleró, alcanzando el 26.0% en 2023-24. Los distritos de media pobreza muestran un patrón similar, aumentando desde el 14.6% hasta 15.3% antes de la pandemia y luego hasta el 19.9% en 2023-24. Los distritos de baja pobreza se movieron en la dirección opuesta al principio: Su participación no de TPS cayó desde el 12.3% en 2016-17 hasta el 11.2% en 2019-20, pero la pandemia revertió esa declinación, empujando la cifra hasta el 15.9% en 2023-24 después de un pico de 16.9% en 2021-22. El aumento post-2020 en la matrícula no de TPS sugiere que las familias en todos los niveles socioeconómicos comenzaron a explorar opciones no tradicionales como escuelas privadas, charter o virtuales. Dado que los conteos de escuelas privadas para los años pares recientes se extrapolan de datos anteriores, nuestras estimaciones probablemente subestimen cuánto ha crecido la matrícula en escuelas privadas, especialmente en comunidades que pueden permitirse la matrícula. Los distritos de alta pobreza pueden tener acceso más bajo a escuelas privadas y recursos más bajos para la educación en casa, pero aún experimentaron el aumento absoluto más grande en estudiantes que abandonaron las escuelas públicas tradicionales.
The interactive opens with two factual baselines. A black line plots the Census Bureau’s population projection of the school-age population (ages 5-17). The population projections assume a linear convergence of age-specific fertility toward a common total fertility rate of 1.52 by the year 2123. During that long period, fertility shifts to older maternal ages (rates fall below age 30 and rise above age 30). The composition of net immigration is held constant at the 2015-19 average, but annual levels change. We use the main (“main”) series scenario (total net immigration rises from about 1.57 million immigrants in 2023 to roughly 2.06 million in 2100). Together, these forces push the school-age population lower almost every year-most sharply between 2025 and 2035-before it stabilizes in the 2040s. A gray line overlays actual enrollment in traditional public schools (TPS) through 2023, revealing a stable pre-COVID plateau, a two-million-student drop in 2020-21, and a slower decline thereafter.
Against this backdrop
The interactive introduces four enrollment scenarios, shown as colored bands whose upper and lower edges bracket optimistic and pessimistic variants of the same logic. The blue scenarios assume the pandemic shock is temporary. In the “hold-steady” version, the TPS share of students is frozen at its 2011-12 to 2019-20 average and applied to the Census population projections, producing the shallowest future decline. In the “pre-trend” variant, a simple linear fit to the gradual pre-COVID erosion in TPS share is extended forward, yielding a somewhat steeper loss. The orange scenarios assume a permanent shift in family preferences away from TPS. The “post-freeze” path locks the TPS share at its lower 2020-21 to 2023-24 average, while the “post-trend” path projects that recent slide forward with another linear fit. Because both orange cases begin with a smaller market share-and, in the trend case, keep shrinking-they trace the largest seat shortfalls by 2050. Within each band, the top edge marks the most optimistic outcome for that scenario and the bottom edge the most pessimistic, conveying how sensitive future TPS capacity needs are to demographic headwinds and to whether the pandemic enrollment shock proves fleeting or enduring.
The blue and orange lines translate these population trends into projected TPS enrollment
The blue paths assume the pandemic’s impact is temporary. The solid blue line holds the TPS share at its pre-pandemic average from 2011-12 to 2019-20, yielding the most conservative estimate of future losses. The dashed blue line extends the slight pre-pandemic decline in the TPS share, calculated with a simple linear fit, and applies that declining share to the Census population projections. The orange paths reflect the possibility that the pandemic permanently shifted family preferences. The solid orange line fixes the TPS share at the post-pandemic average from 2020-21 to 2023-24. The dashed orange line projects a continued post-pandemic slide in the TPS share, again using a linear fit to the most recent data and applying that trend to the projected school-age population. This last series is the least optimistic, showing the steepest decline in enrollment by 2050.
At the opening of the 2023-24 school year
The Common Core of Data recorded 43.06 million students in TPS out of 54.32 million school-age children. For 2025, the projections range from 41.16 million to 43.90 million TPS students, implying either a modest decline or a partial rebound. By 2050, however, all scenarios point downward, with TPS enrollment falling to between 34.57 million and 40.84 million. In practical terms, these estimates suggest that districts could potentially face declines of roughly 2.91 to 6.59 million fewer students over the next quarter century.
Permanent closure rates for brick-and-mortar public schools
Permanent closure rates for brick-and-mortar public schools are calculated by linking consecutive years of Common Core of Data files and identifying campuses that were open for one year but listed as permanently closed the next. Averaging these annual rates over 2012-13 through 2023-24 gives an overall picture of how frequently districts shutter schools. Several states, including Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Virginia, Maryland, and New Hampshire, show average closure rates below 0.5%. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Washington, D.C. (2.06%), Mississippi (1.81%), and Arkansas (1.64%) experience the most frequent closures.
Do big enrollment drops increase the likelihood of permanent closures?
To find out, we flagged every brick-and-mortar public school that was open one year but listed as “permanently closed” the next. Then we looked at how each school’s headcount changed from year to year. The findings show that most open schools saw small changes, usually between a 15% loss and a 15% gain. Closed schools were different: Their numbers were spread out and tilted toward bigger drops in students. The pattern is clear: Steep declines make closure more likely but not certain. Plenty of shrinking schools remain open, and some that closed were not losing students at all. Decisions to shut a school site also hinge on building costs, the ease of moving students to nearby schools, neighborhood politics, school competition, and state rules on low performance. In short, falling enrollment raises the risk, yet school closures are rarely driven by one factor alone.
The COVID-19 pandemic forced millions of families to rethink where and how their children learn, and the effects continue to reshape American K-12 education. Between 2019-20 and 2021-22, the last two years with complete private-school data, roughly 2.05 million additional students were newly missing from both public and private enrollment files, a 450% jump in the number of “missing” students. Traditional public schools accounted for 1.72 million of that total.
Projections to 2050 suggest that, even if families eventually return to pre-pandemic habits, overall population decline alone will trim public-school rolls by about 2.2 million students. If, however, parents keep choosing alternatives at the pace observed since 2020, traditional public schools could lose as many as 8.5 million students, shrinking from 43.06 million in 2023-24 to as few as 34.57 million by mid-century.
Enrollment Declines and Quality Concerns
Due to enrollment declines, two distinct concerns about the quality of students’ educational experiences emerge. Students who exit public schools often move into settings that are less regulated and more variable in performance. Those who remain in shrinking districts inherit tighter budgets because state and federal aid is generally tied to enrollment.
The Durability of the Pandemic-Era Shift
At the same time, the pandemic-era shift may prove less durable than it appears: Homeschooling demands intense parental effort, and as more adults return to on-site work, some families may decide that public schools once again offer the most practical option.
Understanding the Education Landscape
This study draws on the newest district-level enrollment and population data to track where students are going, who is most affected, and how districts might respond. The evidence shows that the modest rebound in 2022-23 did not signal a broader recovery; instead, the number of students outside traditional public schools rose again in 2023-24.
Preserving Quality and Equity
Understanding why parents leave, how administrators plan for continued declines, and which policy tools can preserve quality and equity will be essential as the education landscape continues to change.
