The recent move by Texas to redraw its congressional districts has brought renewed attention to a practice that has been a part of American politics since nearly the inception of the U.S. Constitution. The term “gerrymandering” originated in 1812 when Elbridge Gerry, a drafter of the Constitution and then governor of Massachusetts, created a congressional district shaped like a salamander. This practice has evolved over the centuries, with significant impacts on political outcomes.
The modern era of gerrymandering began in earnest with the 2010 elections. Republicans strategically targeted state legislative races, securing majorities in numerous states. This allowed them to control the redistricting process following the 2010 census. The GOP’s efforts resulted in a significant gain of 63 seats in the 2010 midterm elections and maintained a House majority that far exceeded their share of the popular vote. In 2012, Republicans won 234 House seats, securing a majority of 33, despite Democrats winning 48.8% of the vote compared to the GOP’s 47.7%.
This pattern of disproportionate Republican victories continued through the 2016 presidential election. However, in 2018 and 2020, the partisan balance in the House began to reflect more accurately the shares of the national House vote won by the major parties. The redistricting battle following the 2020 census resulted in a stalemate, with the partisan balance remaining relatively unchanged. In the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans’ 2.8 percentage point edge in the national popular vote translated to 222 House seats, just one seat short of what their vote share would have predicted. Despite Donald Trump‘s victory in the 2024 presidential election, the Republican edge in the House vote fell by 0.2 percentage points, and the GOP lost two seats, resulting in a total of 220 seats and a razor-thin five-seat majority, closely reflecting their national House vote share.
Consequences of the latest developments in Texas
The latest developments in Texas could have significant consequences. If Governor Greg Abbott and the Republican majority in the state legislature successfully engineer a five-seat shift, the GOP would start the 2026 midterm election with a baseline of 225 House seats and a majority that has tripled from 5 to 15. This would make it considerably more challenging for Democrats to overturn the Republican majority in the 2026 midterms. In 2024, only 15 Republican members of the House won their races by less than 5 percentage points. If the 2024 baseline remains intact, Democrats would need to win only 3 of these seats to regain a majority. However, if Texas shifts the baseline, Democrats would need to win 8 of these seats, presenting a more daunting challenge. A seat-by-seat analysis shows that winning 3 Republican seats would require a net shift toward the Democrats of about 1 point in the national popular vote, while winning 8 seats would require a much larger gain of 2.5 points.
This analysis assumes that Texas’s redistricting efforts will yield a net Republican gain of 5 seats. However, there are two reasons why this may not occur. First, four of the new districts contain Hispanic majorities, an electorate in which Donald Trump scored large gains in 2024. However, recent surveys indicate that Hispanics are giving the Trump administration low marks for its handling of inflation and immigration, which could negatively impact House Republicans in the next election. Second, events in Texas have prompted several Democratic-held states, including California and Illinois, to consider new redistricting plans of their own. While there are obstacles, such as California’s non-partisan redistricting commission, it appears possible to overcome them. The redistricting battle may well go nationwide, with consequences that are difficult to predict.
